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Topic 9

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International Relations: Global Powers and Pakistan

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Topic 9 — Key Facts for KPK PMS Core concept: Pakistan’s foreign policy is shaped by its rivalry with India, its strategic location, its nuclear weapons programme, and its complex relationship with the Islamic world; major power dynamics (US, China, Russia, EU) all affect Pakistan’s strategic calculations High-yield point: Pakistan is one of nine nuclear-armed states; the nuclear programme began under Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1974 after India’s first nuclear test; Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence doctrine emphasises “credible minimum deterrence” and “first use” policy (though officially it maintains “no first use” with conventional conflicts) ⚡ Exam tip: The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership question is frequently tested — India is not an NSG member but sought membership in 2008; Pakistan has opposed India’s NSG membership on the grounds that it would legitimise India’s nuclear programme without a CTBT; this position has been a consistent foreign policy stance


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Pakistan’s Nuclear Programme

Pakistan is one of nine nuclear-armed states. Its nuclear weapons programme is the cornerstone of its national security strategy, designed to deter Indian aggression.

Historical Development

The Decision (1974): After India’s “Smiling Buddha” nuclear test (May 1974), Zulfikar Ali Bhutto launched Pakistan’s nuclear programme, famously declaring: “If India builds the bomb, we will too, even if we have to eat grass.”

Key Milestones:

YearEvent
1974Bhutto initiates nuclear programme
1976Uranium enrichment programme begins at Kahuta (KRL)
1981HEU (Highly Enriched Uranium) production begins
1988Nuclear capable missiles tested
1990AGO (Atomic Energy Commission) declares weaponisation readiness
1998Pakistan conducts 6 nuclear tests (May 28–30, 1998) — Chagai tests
1999Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine articulated — Credible Minimum Deterrence
2000sTactical nuclear weapons (Nasr/Hatf-IX) added to arsenal

The Chagai Tests (May 28–30, 1998): Pakistan conducted underground nuclear tests at the Ras Koh (Chagai) hills in Balochistan:

  • May 28, 1998: 5 tests
  • May 30, 1998: 1 test
  • Yield estimated at 35 kilotons (largest by a Muslim nation)

Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan: The centrifuge enrichment technology was obtained through the nuclear black market network centred on the Kahn network. Dr. Khan transferred enrichment technology to Libya, Iran, and North Korea. He was publicly disgraced in 2004 but never prosecuted, and remains a national hero to many Pakistanis.

Nuclear Doctrine and Strategy

Credible Minimum Deterrence (CMD): Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is based on maintaining a minimum credible deterrent:

  • Sufficient nuclear weapons to deter any level of Indian aggression
  • Second-strike capability ( retaliation capability)
  • No first use of nuclear weapons in response to conventional attack
  • Nuclear weapons are for deterrence only

The Nasr/Hatf-IX (2011): A short-range, tactical nuclear weapon (60km range) designed to deter Indian ” Cold Start” doctrine (limited war under the nuclear threshold).

The Strategic Restraint Division: Pakistan established the Strategic Plans Division (SPD) in 2000 to manage the nuclear arsenal. The SPD is responsible for:

  • Command and control of nuclear weapons
  • Security of nuclear materials and facilities
  • Operations in crisis situations

India-Pakistan Nuclear Risk Reduction: After the 1998 tests, both countries joined the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT) negotiations and established a nuclear hotline.

Exam Tip: India’s “Cold Start” doctrine (2000s) was designed to allow Indian forces to launch limited ground offensives into Pakistan without triggering nuclear retaliation. Pakistan responded with the Nasr tactical nuclear weapon (Hatf-IX) to raise the nuclear threshold and deter limited conventional war.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal

Delivery Systems:

SystemTypeRange
Hatf-1/2/3Short-range ballistic missiles300–600 km
Hatf-4 (Shaheen-1)SRBM650 km
Hatf-5 (Shaheen-2)MRBM2,000+ km
Hatf-6 (Shaheen-3)MRBM2,750 km
Hatf-7 (Babur)Ground-launched cruise missile700 km
Hatf-8 (Ra’ad)Air-launched cruise missile350 km
Nasr (Hatf-IX)Tactical nuclear weapon60 km
F-16, JF-17 ThunderAircraft deliveryVarious

🔴 Extended — Deep Study (3mo+)

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Pakistan and the Major Powers

Pakistan-United States Relations

The US-Pakistan relationship has been the most consequential bilateral relationship for Pakistan:

The Cold War Era (1947–1989): Pakistan was a key US ally in containing Soviet expansion:

  • SEATO (1954) and CENTO (1959) alliances
  • US provided $2.6 billion in military and economic aid during the 1980s (Soviet invasion of Afghanistan)
  • Pakistani ISI channelled CIA funds to the Afghan mujahideen
  • US support ended abruptly after the Soviet withdrawal

The 1990s Chill:

  • US suspended aid after Pakistan’s 1990 coup and nuclear tests
  • The Pressler Amendment (1990) blocked military sales and aid
  • Deterioration of relations throughout the 1990s

The War on Terror (2001–2008):

  • US demanded Pakistan’s cooperation against the Taliban
  • $12 billion in US aid provided
  • US conducted drone strikes in Pakistan (North Waziristan) using CIA-operated drones
  • The relationship was marked by mistrust — Pakistan simultaneously cooperating with and deceiving the US

The Post-2011 Deterioration:

  • Raymond Davis incident (January 2011): CIA contractor killed two Pakistanis; resolved diplomatically
  • Salala attack (November 2011): 24 Pakistani soldiers killed by US-NATO cross-border fire
  • US suspended $800 million in military aid
  • Pakistan closed the NATO supply route for 7 months
  • Relations further deteriorated after the US killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad (May 2011)

The 2020s:

  • The US shifted its South Asia policy toward India as the primary strategic partner
  • US-India economic and defence ties expanded significantly
  • Pakistan received limited US attention under Biden
  • US asked Pakistan for assistance in facilitating talks with the Taliban (2021–2022)

Pakistan and Russia

Historical Relationship:

  • Cold War: Pakistan was aligned with the US; USSR was seen as hostile
  • Soviet-Afghan War: Pakistan supported the US-backed mujahideen against the USSR

Post-1991 Relationship:

  • Pakistan and Russia established diplomatic relations after the USSR dissolution
  • Russia supported Pakistan’s membership in the SCO (2000s)
  • The Russia-Pakistan Gas Pipeline (North-South Pipeline):
    • Russia agreed to build the pipeline despite US and Western pressure
    • Subject to US sanctions on Russia (2022)
    • Pakistan continues to insist the project is for civilian energy purposes

Military Cooperation:

  • Russia supplied Mi-35 helicopters to Pakistan
  • Russia-Pakistan joint military exercises (Druzhba/Arabs)
  • Russia has been cautious about antagonising India in its Pakistan policy

Pakistan and the European Union

The GSP Plus Issue (2014–2022): Pakistan was granted GSP Plus status by the EU in 2014, providing preferential tariffs for Pakistani exports:

  • In exchange, Pakistan committed to implementing 27 international conventions on human rights, labour rights, and environmental protection
  • This led to significant growth in Pakistan’s textile exports to the EU
  • 2022: EU suspended Pakistan’s GSP Plus status following concerns about human rights, particularly regarding the blasphemy laws and treatment of minorities

Trade and Development:

  • EU is Pakistan’s second largest trading partner (after China)
  • EU provides development assistance to Pakistan
  • EU has supported Pakistan’s democratic transition

Pakistan and the Middle East

The Afghan Dilemma in Regional Politics: The Middle East dimension of Pakistan’s foreign policy intersects with the Afghanistan question:

Saudi Arabia and the OIC:

  • Saudi Arabia is Pakistan’s closest Middle Eastern ally
  • Pakistan has historically protected Saudi Arabia’s interests within the OIC
  • The 2023 OIC Controversy: Pakistan voted in favour of a resolution on the Uyghur issue in China, angering Saudi Arabia and the UAE
  • Pakistan’s Foreign Minister and Army Chief visited Saudi Arabia to manage the fallout

The UAE:

  • The UAE has been a significant investor in Pakistan
  • UAE provided loans during Pakistan’s economic crises
  • Pakistani workers in the UAE send substantial remittances
  • The UAE has mediated between Pakistan and India on certain occasions

Iran:

  • Iran is Pakistan’s western neighbour with significant Shiite population
  • The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline (IP Gas) has been delayed:
    • Pakistan insists it will import gas for civilian use only (to avoid US sanctions)
    • The pipeline was supposed to be completed by 2014 but has been repeatedly delayed
  • Balochistan border issues: Iranian forces have conducted operations against Baloch insurgents crossing into Iran
  • Iran and Pakistan conduct joint border patrols

Israel: Pakistan does not recognise Israel and has no formal diplomatic relations

  • Pakistan voted against the UN partition plan in 1947
  • Pakistan has maintained solidarity with the Palestinian cause
  • Pakistan’s position on normalisation of Arab states with Israel (Abraham Accords) has been negative

Pakistan and the United Nations

Peacekeeping: Pakistan has been one of the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping operations:

  • Over 130 Pakistani soldiers have died in UN peacekeeping missions
  • Pakistani peacekeepers have served in Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Congo, Haiti, and other missions

PKOW: Pakistan supported the United Nations’ position on Kashmir at various points but has been frustrated by the international community’s failure to implement UN Security Council resolutions on Kashmir.

The UN Security Council Reforms: Pakistan supports the permanent membership of India in the UN Security Council as a precondition for its own permanent seat. However, it has opposed India’s inclusion without a broader reform of the UN system.


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